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Prediction for CME (2024-05-04T06:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-04T06:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30437/-1
CME Note: CME to the NE, only seen in STEREO COR2A due to an ongoing SOHO data gap starting at 2024-05-03T23:27Z. Associated with an M9.1-class flare from AR 3663 (N26W09) which peaked at 2024-05-04T06:19Z, best observed in SDO AIA 131. Also observed as an EUV wave and field line movement deflected to the NE of the region in SDO AIA 171/193/211. There are no CME arrival signatures in solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-07T01:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30440/1
Model Inputs:
2024-05-04T06:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-1.0, Lat.=29.0, Speed=863.0, HalfAngle=13.0, Time21.5=2024-05-04T10:18Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-07T01:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-06T23:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_101800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_101800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_101800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_101800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_101800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_101800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_101800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_101800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_101800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_101800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_101800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_101800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_101800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240504_101800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 53.27 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-05-04T19:44Z

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